Pacific atolls face $10bn climate fight

Sydney — Adapting to a sea level rise of up to half a metre will cost the three most vulnerable Pacific atoll states nearly $10bn, or the equivalent to about 20 years of GDP, the World Bank warns in a new report.

Kiribati, Tuvalu and Marshall Islands are among the smallest, most remote and dispersed countries in the world, spread across 6.4-million square kilometres of Pacific Ocean, where residents live at an elevation of no more than two to three metres, according to the report released on Thursday.

A third of the population of Kiribati and Tuvalu are at risk of falling into extreme poverty from climate shocks such as coastal flooding, while healthcare is under pressure from increased heat-related illness, it said.

A sea level rise of 500cm, which would submerge large portions of these nations, could occur as soon as 2050 under a worst-case scenario, or more likely by 2070, and it was imperative for governments to act on adaptation plans now, the report said.

Climate funding is the focus of the 2024 COP29 talks under way in Baku, Azerbaijan. The summit’s success is likely to be judged on whether nations can agree on a new target for how much richer countries, development lenders and the private sector must provide each year to developing countries to finance climate action.

The Pacific atolls face a climate funding gap, the World Bank report said.

The cost of physical adaptation, by building seawalls in urban centres, house raising and inland relocation, for a sea-level rise of up to half a metre is about $3.7bn for Kiribati, $1bn for Tuvalu, and $5bn for Marshall Islands. “This represents about 20 years of current GDP dedicated fully to physical adaptation measures.”

The estimate excludes the cost of other adaptation measures needed in health, education, power and water systems. Importing sand and rock to build sea walls and raise and reclaim shorelines will also be costly and challenging, it added.

Reuters