Japan sets ambitious targets in revised energy plan

Japan will make impressive changes to its generation of electricity by the end of the decade, slashing its dependence on fossil fuels and boosting its reliance on renewable energy in an ambitious effort to reduce emissions.

Renewable energy, which includes solar, wind and hydropower, should account for more than a third of the nation’s power generation by the fiscal year starting April 2030, according to a draft report released on Wednesday. That’s up from its previous target of less than a quarter. Hydrogen was also added to the mix for the first time.

The biggest loser in the revised plan will be liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its annual power generation slated to fall about 50% by the end of the decade. The use of coal should also fall by about 40%.

The revised energy plan is part of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s pledge to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. It’s also become increasingly cost effective to shift to cleaner sources of energy, with the share of renewable power in Japan nearly doubling over the past decade due to strong government support for solar and a steeper-than-expected decline in costs.

However, it isn’t clear whether the island nation — the world’s fifth-biggest polluter — will be able to meet the new targets. Japan will need to install solar panels on millions of buildings, shut dozens of coal-fired power plants and restart nearly all of its existing nuclear reactors.

Earlier this year, Japan strengthened its 2030 Paris Agreement goals, raising its target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 46% by 2030 from 2013 levels, up from its previous aim of 26%.

The shift will mean that Japan, the world’s top LNG importer that pioneered the industry from the 1960s, will require far less fuel in 2030 than its previous plan, posing a potential dilemma for its suppliers from Qatar to Australia to the US.

The amount of energy produced from nuclear power remains unchanged from the previous plan. Japan will require 27 of its remaining 36 reactors to resume operations. Only 10 units have started so far under safety rules enacted after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and the ensuing public opposition.

Hydrogen and ammonia-fired power generation are a new addition to the nation’s energy plan. Over the long term, utilities aim to shift to hydrogen and ammonia made from renewable sources to lower their carbon footprint and reach the government’s 2050 net-zero pledge.

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