Farming in Australia expected to slow down after bumper year

Sydney — A year of bumper harvests has supercharged Australian farming, but the outlook for next season is less stellar with output value shrinking on lower prices and reduced volumes of crops and livestock.

The overall value of farm production is forecast to contract 4% to A$63.3bn ($49bn) in 2021-22, according to a report from government forecaster Abares. While that figure is expected to stay above A$60bn over the next five years, the sector faces challenges, including pressure on red meat prices as China rebuilds its hog herds and a variable climate.

“Shifting trade, along with macroeconomic and production uncertainties, will provide the backdrop for what we expect to be a more difficult environment in which to grow production and trade value,” Abares’ acting executive director Jared Greenville said. Wine, beef and barley exports are among products hit by a raft of trade curbs amid rising political tensions with China.

The sector remained resilient to Covid-19 disruption last season, Greenville said, with production value rising 8% from a year earlier to A$66bn, thanks to plentiful rains which boosted the winter crop to the second largest on record.

While upcoming crops are set to benefit from residual soil moisture and improved water availability across the country, the overall 2021-22 harvest is unlikely to match the records set last season, the report noted.

Still, exports are expected to climb 6% in 2021-22, the first increase in four years, helped by increased demand for cotton, wool and dairy products.

Bloomberg