World Bank downgrades global growth forecast to 2.3% over trade wars

Washington — The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a “significant headwind” for nearly all economies.

In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the bank lowered its forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies — including the US, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions — from the levels it projected just six months ago before US President Donald Trump took office.

Trump has upended global trade with a series of on-again, off-again tariff hikes that have increased the effective US tariff rate from below 3% to the mid-teens — its highest level in almost a century — and triggered retaliation by China and other countries.

The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump’s erratic trade policies, though US officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts.

The bank stopped short of forecasting a recession, but said global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside a recession since 2008. By 2027, global GDP growth was expected to average just 2.5%, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s.

The report forecast that global trade would grow by 1.8% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9% level in the 2000s. The forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of late May, including a 10% US tariff on imports from most countries. It excludes increases announced by Trump in April and then postponed until July 9 to allow for negotiations.

The bank said global inflation was expected to reach 2.9% in 2025, remaining above pre-Covid-19 levels, given tariff increases and tight labour markets.

“Risks to the global outlook remain tilted decidedly to the downside,” the bank wrote.

It said its models showed that a further 10-percentage point increase in average US tariffs, on top of the 10% rate already implemented, and proportional retaliation by other countries, could shave another 0.5 percentage point off the outlook for 2025.

Such an escalation in trade barriers would result “in global trade seizing up in the second half of this year… accompanied by a widespread collapse in confidence, surging uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets,” the report said.

Nonetheless, it said the risk of a global recession was less than 10%.

Top officials from the US and China are meeting in London this week to try to defuse a trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earth minerals, threatening a global supply chain shock and slower growth.

“Uncertainty remains a powerful drag, like fog on a runway. It slows investment and clouds the outlook,” World Bank deputy chief economist Ayhan Kose said in an interview.

But he said there were signs of increased dialogue on trade that could help dispel uncertainty, and supply chains were adapting to a new global trade map, not collapsing. Global trade growth could see a modest rebound in 2026 to 2.4%, and developments in artificial intelligence could also boost growth, he said.

“We think that eventually the uncertainty will decline,” he said. “Once the type of fog we have lifts, the trade engine may start running again, but at a slower pace.”

Kose said while things could get worse, trade was continuing and China, India and others were still delivering robust growth. Many countries were also discussing new trade partnerships that could pay dividends later, he said.

The World Bank said the global outlook had “deteriorated substantially” since January, mainly due to advanced economies, now seen growing by just 1.2%, down half a point, after expanding 1.7% in 2024.

The US forecast was slashed by 0.9 percentage point from its January forecast to 1.4%, and the 2026 outlook was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 1.6%. Rising trade barriers, “record-high uncertainty” and a spike in financial market volatility were expected to weigh on private consumption, trade and investment, it said.

Growth estimates in the eurozone were cut by 0.3 percentage point to 0.7% and in Japan by 0.5 percentage point to 0.7%.

Emerging markets

It said emerging markets and developing economies were expected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 versus 4.1% in January’s forecast.

Poor countries would suffer the most, the report said. By 2027 developing economies’ per capita GDP would be 6% below pre-pandemic levels, and it could take these countries — minus China — two decades to recoup the economic losses of the 2020s.

Mexico, heavily dependent on trade with the US, saw its growth forecast cut by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2% in 2025.

The World Bank left its forecast for China unchanged at 4.5% from January, saying Beijing still had monetary and fiscal space to support its economy and stimulate growth.

Reuters