Just 100 days on and Trump is overturning world order

Washington — He has launched an unprecedented global tariff war and slashed US foreign aid. He has disparaged Nato allies and embraced Russia’s narrative about its invasion of Ukraine. And he has spoken about annexing Greenland, retaking the Panama Canal and making Canada the 51st state. In the chaotic first 100 days since President Donald Trump returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign that has upended parts of the rules-based world order that Washington helped build from the ashes of World War 2.

“Trump is much more radical now than he was eight years ago,” said Elliott Abrams, a conservative who served under presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush before being appointed US special envoy on Iran and Venezuela in Trump’s first term. “I have been surprised.”

Trump’s second-term “America First” agenda has alienated friends and emboldened adversaries while raising questions about how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a more traditional US president is elected in 2028.

All of this comes amid what the Republican president’s critics see as signs of democratic backsliding at home that have raised concerns abroad. These include verbal attacks on judges, a pressure campaign against universities and the transfer of migrants to a notorious El Salvador prison as part of a broader deportation drive.

“What we’re seeing is a huge disruption in world affairs,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations. “No-one is certain at this point what to make of what’s happening or what will come next.”

That assessment of Trump’s shake-up of the global system comes from interviews with more than a dozen current and former government officials, foreign diplomats and independent analysts in Washington and capitals about the world.

Many of them say that while some of the damage already done could be long-lasting, the situation may not be beyond repair if Trump softens his approach. He has already backtracked on some issues, including the timing and severity of his tariffs.

But they see little chance of a dramatic shift by Trump and instead expect many countries to make lasting changes in their relationships with the US to safeguard against his erratic policy-making.

The fallout has already begun. Some European allies are looking to boost their defence industries to reduce reliance on US weapons. Debate has intensified in South Korea about developing a nuclear arsenal. And speculation has grown that deteriorating relations could prompt US partners to move closer to China, at least economically.

The White House rejects the notion that Trump has hurt US credibility, citing instead the need to clean up after what it calls former President Joe Biden’s “feckless leadership” on the world stage.

“President Trump is taking swift action to address challenges by bringing both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table to end their war, stemming the flow of fentanyl and protecting American workers by holding China accountable, getting Iran to the negotiating table by reimposing Maximum Pressure [intensified sanctions against Iran by the Trump administration],” White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said in a statement.

He said Trump was also “making the Houthis pay for their terrorism ... and securing our southern border that was open to invasion for four years”.

Out of alignment

Still, More than half of Americans, including one in five Republicans, think Trump is “too closely aligned” with Russia, and the American public has little appetite for the expansionist agenda he has laid out, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on April 21.

At stake, say experts, is the future of a global system that has taken shape over the past eight decades largely under US primacy. It has come to be based on free trade, the rule of law and respect for territorial integrity. Under Trump, who has been scornful of multilateral and often views global affairs through the transactional lens of a former real estate developer, that world order is being shaken up.

Accusing trading partners of “ripping off” the US for decades, he has set in motion a sweeping tariffs policy that has roiled financial markets, weakened the dollar and triggered warnings of a slowdown in worldwide economic output and increased risk of recession. Trump has called the tariffs necessary “medicine”, yet his objectives remain unclear even as his administration works to negotiate separate deals with dozens of countries.

At the same time, he has all but reversed US policy on Russia’s three-year war in Ukraine and engaged in an Oval Office shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in late February. He has warmed to Moscow and stirred fears that he will force Nato-backed Kyiv to accept the loss of territory while he prioritises improved relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

America alone?

The administration’s belittling of Europe and Nato, long the central pillar of transatlantic security but accused by Trump and his aides of freeloading off the US, has caused deep unease. After winning February’s election German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz expressed concern about European relations with the US, saying it would be difficult if those who put “America First” actually made their motto “America Alone”. “This really is five minutes to midnight for Europe,” Merz said.

In a further blow to Washington’s global image, Trump has employed expansionist rhetoric long avoided by modern-day presidents, which some analysts say could be used by China as justification if it decides to invade self-governed Taiwan.

With his blustery style, he has insisted that the US will “get” Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish island. He has angered Canada by saying it has little reason to exist and should become part of the US. He has threatened to seize the Panama Canal, which was handed to Panama in 1999. And he has proposed that Washington take over war-ravaged Gaza and transform the Palestinian enclave into a Riviera-style resort.

Some analysts say Trump may be seeking to resurrect a Cold War-style global structure in which big powers carve up geographic spheres of influence.

Even so, he has offered no details on how the US could acquire more territory, and some experts suggest he may be assuming extreme and even over-the-top positions as bargaining ploys.

Reuters