Lula forecast to win as Brazilians vote in tense presidential poll

Brasilia — Brazilians cast their votes on Sunday in the first round of their country's most polarised election in decades, with leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expected to beat right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

Most polls have shown Lula with a solid lead for months, but Bolsonaro has signalled he may refuse to accept defeat, stoking fears of institutional crisis or postelection violence. A message projected on Rio de Janeiro's Christ the Redeemer statue before the vote read, “Peace in the Elections.”

Most opinion surveys favour Lula, who was president from 2003 to 2010, by 10-15 percentage points. If he wins more than 50% of valid votes, which several pollsters show within reach, that would clinch an outright victory, foregoing a second-round vote.

Decked out in Lula stickers, Adriana Schneider was voting at a primary school in Rio de Janeiro. The university professor, 48, said Bolsonaro's administration has been “catastrophic” for investment in culture, arts, science and education.

“We're living under a barbaric government,” she said.

Lula was jailed during the last election, serving a conviction for graft that was later overturned by the Supreme Court, allowing him to face off against his fierce rival Bolsonaro in this year's vote.

Voting in São Bernardo do Campo, Lula acknowledged the dramatic turnaround in his fortunes after a conviction that he says was politically motivated.

Poor showing

“It's an important day for me,” he said. “Four years ago I couldn't vote because I was the victim of a lie … I want to try to help my country to return to normal.”

Bolsonaro voted in Rio, and said he expects to win the election in Sunday's first round, despite his poor showing in polls. The former army captain does not trust the pollsters, saying their results do not correspond with the support he sees at his campaign events.

“If we have clean elections, we will win today with at least 60% of the votes,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted on his social media before voting. “All the evidence we have is favourable to us. The other side has not been able to take to the streets, has not campaigned, has no acceptance, no credibility.”

A winner could be announced within hours after polling stations close at 10pm SA time. If no candidate wins more than half of the votes, excluding blank and spoiled ballots, the top two finishers go to an October 30 run-off, prolonging the tense campaign season.

Bolsonaro has threatened to contest the result of the vote, after making baseless allegations of fraud, accusing electoral authorities of plotting against him and suggesting the military should conduct a parallel tally, which they declined to do.

A decisive victory by Lula on Sunday could reduce the odds of a tumultuous transition. Critics of Bolsonaro say another month of his attacks on the democratic process could spur social unrest like the 2021 assault on the US Capitol by supporters of former president Donald Trump.

Bolsonaro said he will respect the election result if voting is “clean and transparent”, without defining any criteria.

Hold majority

Brazilians are also voting on Sunday for all 513 members of the lower chamber of Congress, a third of the 81 members of the Senate and state governors and legislatures.

Though Lula leads the presidential race, the conservative coalition backing Bolsonaro is expected to hold a majority in both chambers of Congress. That could present challenges for the leftist to govern a country with rising hunger, high unemployment and an uneven recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Lula and Bolsonaro have both promised more generous welfare spending next year, adding to pressure on the federal budget and leading both to look at alternatives to current spending rules.

The newly established autonomy of Brazil's central bank and Lula's choice of a centrist former rival as running mate have reassured some investors that he would not trigger a disruptive break in economic policy.

Lula has vowed to make a sharp departure from Bolsonaro's environmental policies after deforestation in the Amazon rainforest hit a 15-year high. Lula has pledged to combat logging, step up protection of the biome and local tribes, and make Brazil a protagonist in climate diplomacy.

As in past elections, Brazil's military has been mobilised to heighten security at about 477,000 polling stations, using electronic voting machines that allow for swift tabulation of results by the national electoral authority (TSE).

After Bolsonaro's criticisms of Brazil's voting systems, the TSE invited a record number of foreign election observers, including first-time missions from US observers at the Carter Center and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

Reuters