Two-thirds of business economists in the US expect a recession to begin by the end of 2020, while many respondents say trade policy is the greatest risk to the expansion, according to a new survey. About 10% see the next contraction starting in 2019, 56% say 2020 and 33% said 2021 or later, according to the August 28-September 17 poll of 51 forecasters issued by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday. Forty-one percent said the biggest downside risk was trade policy, followed by 18% citing higher interest rates and 18% again saying it would be a substantial stock-market decline or volatility. “Trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views,” David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research director and the association's survey chair, said in a statement with the report. The expansion that in May became the second-longest on record still looks resilient, with no major warning signs flashing and Fed officials upgrading their growth outlook for this year ...

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