Fitch says mpox could add to African countries’ fiscal pressures

A rapid spread of the mpox virus in Sub-Saharan Africa could add to the fiscal pressures many countries in the region are experiencing, ratings agency Fitch says.

Mpox, a viral infection that causes pus-filled lesions and flu-like symptoms, is usually mild but can kill. The potentially deadly disease was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organisation earlier in August after a new strain, known as clade Ib, spread from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to neighbouring states.

“Virus outbreaks can have significant economic and fiscal effects,” Fitch said in a statement, adding that some of the negative impact could be offset, however, by increased funding from rich donor nations.

SA, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda were some of the Fitch-rated issuers that had reported mpox cases, the ratings agency said.

“In most of these, the number of confirmed mpox cases is very low, often in the single digits. However, there could be underreporting in some countries,” it said.

About 13 African countries had reported more than 22,800 mpox cases and 622 deaths this year, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said on Tuesday, up from 12 countries reporting more than 18,900 cases and 541 deaths a week earlier.

Several strains of mpox are spreading in Africa at the same time, but the DRC accounts for the majority of the cases.

In the event of a substantial increase in mpox case counts, Fitch said the main impact on economies was likely to be on consumption and production.

Tourism could also be hit — a potentially big factor in Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda — where UN data estimates it accounted for 11%, 20% and 19%, respectively, of total goods and services export earnings in 2022.

“There could also be challenges managing inflationary effects, especially if food production and/or logistics are significantly disrupted,” Fitch said, as well as crimping tax revenues and requiring more healthcare spending.

Meanwhile, Africa has secured less than 10% of the estimated $245m it needs to fight the mpox outbreak, according to a senior official at the Africa CDC.

Africa CDC has pulled together a budget to determine the amount of money available for the mpox response and the resources it needs to mobilise.

“We’ve come to the first estimate of $245m,” Africa CDC chief of staff Ngashi Ngongo said at a WHO meeting in the Republic of Congo’s capital, Brazzaville.

The DRC’s government had committed $10m to support the fight against the outbreak, while the AU had approved $10.4m, Ngongo said. Therefore, about $20m was available for the response, he said, adding that these figures would be updated.

“The current gap where we stand today is about $224m that we are looking for,” he said.

Jean Kaseya, director-general of Africa CDC, said during the meeting that the organisation was moving towards securing almost 1-million doses of mpox vaccine. Those included 215,000 doses from vaccine maker Bavarian Nordic, 100,000 doses from France, almost 100,000 doses from Germany and about 500,000 doses from Spain.

There is no timeline yet on when the vaccines might reach the DRC, which is the most affected by the virus.

Reuters