Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appears assured of retaining his post after Monday’s elections, despite having waged a civil war that’s triggered a famine and failing to contain exploding ethnic tensions.

Some of the main opposition groups are either boycotting the vote or banned from competing, while the more than 40 others that remain in the running will fragment the antigovernment vote. That leaves Abiy’s Prosperity Party with a clear path to retain its majority in the 547-seat House of People’s Representatives — which elects the premier...

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