Kenya’s ‘own goal’ likely to depress bank stocks until after vote
Lenders will probably have to cope with interest-rate caps that have dented earnings and curbed lending until after elections, adding to pressure on their stocks
Kenyan banks will probably have to cope with interest-rate caps that have dented earnings and curbed lending until after elections, adding to pressure on their stocks after the worst January in at least five years.
The 11 listed Kenyan banks dropped an average of 14% in January, with KCB Group, Equity Group Holdings and HF Group leading the decline. Caps on the amount banks can charge for loans, introduced in September, are being blamed for the slump.
"The rate-cap legislation has been a massive own goal in terms of stimulating growth," Razia Khan, head of Africa macro research at Standard Chartered in London, said by phone. "The near-term outlook for bank returns is not very positive at all. What’s happening is draconian, but it’s unlikely there will be changes before the August elections. "
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta approved the caps, against the advice of the country’s central bank and the treasury, to fulfil a campaign pledge he made before coming to power in 2013 that he would lower the cost of loans. It has failed to rejuvenate private-sector credit growth, which slowed to a 16-month low of 4.3% in December from 18% a year earlier. The leader will seek a second term in this year’s vote.
The cap was a "highly politicised decision," said Robert Besseling, an executive director at Exx Africa in Johannesburg. In addition to that law, Kenya is now contemplating restrictions on commercial-bank deposits by state-owned companies to improve the government’s cash management.
There was "space" for bank stocks to fall further, said Abizer Sharafali, senior research analyst at Nairobi-based Apex Africa Capital. "There is still some selling left in the market, especially if you look at blue chips like KCB, Barclays Bank of Kenya, Standard Chartered Bank and Equity."
Lenders in East Africa’s biggest economy will start to release 2016 earnings in February, giving investors their first chance to asses the fair value of the stocks since the caps were put in place.
The drop in bank valuations may spur consolidation, something Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) governor Patrick Njoroge says he wants for the industry. Kenya has had three bank failures since August 2015 and, with 42 lenders, boasts more banks per capita than SA.
Some of the banks "will become prime targets for foreign acquisitions or forced sector consolidation", Besseling said. "The CBK hopes that stricter capital requirements will force takeovers and mergers to create larger and more resilient financial institutions that will be able to offer lower interest rates on loans."
South African lenders FirstRand and Nedbank have already expressed an interest in making acquisitions in the Kenyan market. While valuations for banks in that country have declined, the Kenyan shilling has weakened 2.2% against the dollar since Kenyatta signed the law capping rates, to trade at its weakest level in 16 months in January. The IMF said the caps could cut as many as two percentage points off Kenya’s growth rate in 2017.
"We expect competition to intensify as banks seek to grow their balance sheets in an environment where private-sector credit and deposit growth have slowed significantly," Craig Metherell, an African banks analyst at Avior Capital Markets in Cape Town, said. "The bigger banks believe they will benefit from a flight to quality as the sector undergoes these fundamental changes. There is always concern that the smaller banks will face difficulties."