Trump warns Israel strike on Iran ‘could very well happen’

Washington/Vienna/Dubai — US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran “could very well happen” but he would not call it imminent and that he would prefer to avoid conflict with Tehran and reach a peaceful solution over its nuclear programme.

Trump’s comments came after the UN nuclear watchdog’s board of governors declared Iran in breach of its nonproliferation obligations and Tehran announced countermeasures, as an Iranian official said a “friendly country” had warned it of a potential Israeli attack.

US and Iranian officials will hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran’s escalating uranium enrichment programme in Oman on Sunday, according to US and Omani officials.

But security concerns have risen since Trump said on Wednesday American personnel were being moved out of the region because “it could be a dangerous place” and that Tehran would not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.

Washington is concerned that Israel could take military action against Iran in the coming days, US officials said on condition of anonymity, despite Trump’s recent warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against such a strike while US diplomacy continues with Tehran.

US intelligence indicates that Israel has been making preparations to hit Iran’s nuclear installations. But one US official said there was no sign that Israel had made a final decision.

“I don’t want to say imminent, but it looks like it’s something that could very well happen,” Trump told reporters at a White House event, adding Iran could not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.

“I’d love to avoid the conflict,” he said. “Iran’s going to have to negotiate a little bit tougher, meaning they’re going to have to give us something they’re not willing to give us right now.”

Security in the Middle East has already been destabilised by spillover effects of the Gaza war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if the nuclear talks do not yield a deal and said he has become less confident Tehran will agree to stop enriching uranium. The Islamic Republic wants a lifting of US sanctions imposed on it since 2018.

Earlier on Thursday, Trump expressed frustration that oil prices had risen amid supply concerns arising from potential conflict in the Middle East.

With Washington offering little explanation for its security concerns, some foreign diplomats suggested that the evacuation of personnel and US officials anonymously raising the spectre of an Israeli attack on Iran, could be a ploy to ratchet up pressure on Tehran for concessions at the negotiating table.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that even if the country’s nuclear facilities were destroyed by bombs they would be rebuilt, state media reported on Thursday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s policy-making board of governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years, raising the prospect of reporting it to the UN Security Council.

The step is the culmination of several stand-offs between the Vienna-based IAEA and Iran since Trump pulled the US out of a nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers in 2018 during his first term, after which that accord unravelled.

An IAEA official said Iran had responded by informing the nuclear watchdog that it plans to open a new uranium enrichment facility.

After the IAEA decision, the Israeli foreign ministry said Tehran’s actions undermine the global non-proliferation treaty and posed an imminent threat to regional and international security and stability.

Iran is a signatory to the NPT while Israel is not and is believed to have the Middle East’s sole nuclear arsenal.

Markets absorbed the developments in a volatile Middle East. 

“Clearly it is Iran that is at the centre of this and the possibility that you see a strike from the US or Israel,” said Paul McNamara, a director of emerging market debt for investment firm GAM. “There is a lot of scope for things to get a whole lot worse if we do see a military strike and a sustained attack.”

Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesperson for Iran’s atomic energy organisation, told state TV that Tehran had informed the IAEA of two countermeasures including “the upgrading of centrifuges in Fordow (enrichment plant) from first to sixth generation, which will significantly boost the production of enriched uranium”.

Enrichment can be used to produce uranium for reactor fuel or, at higher levels of refinement, for atomic bombs. Iran says its nuclear energy programme is only for peaceful purposes.

Reiterating Iran’s stance that it will not abandon the right to enrichment as an NPT member, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that rising Middle East tensions served to “influence Tehran to change its position about its nuclear rights”.

Drills

Iranian state media reported that Iran’s military had begun drills earlier than planned to focus on “enemy movements”.

Israeli strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer and Mossad head David Barnea will travel to Oman to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff ahead of the US-Iranian talks in another bid to clarify Israel’s position, Israeli media reported on Thursday.

The decision by Trump to remove some personnel from the region comes at a brittle and highly sensitive juncture in the oil-producing Middle East, where security has already been destabilised by the Gaza war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas that began in October 2023. 

The US embassy in Baghdad advised American citizens on Thursday against travelling to Iraq, Iran’s western neighbour. U.S. and Iraqi sources said it was preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy.

Foreign energy firms continue to operate normally in Iraq, a senior Iraqi official said.

Bahrain’s state oil firm Bapco Energies is monitoring the situation in the region and its operations are unaffected, it said on Thursday, after dependents of US military personnel were advised to leave the country because of regional tensions.

Reuters