Leading indicator has WTO fretting about global growth outlook
The WTO's quarterly outlook indicator showed a reading of 96.3, and anything below 100 signals below-trend growth in trade
Geneva — A quarterly leading indicator of world merchandise trade slumped to its lowest reading in nine years on Tuesday, which should put policy makers on guard for a sharper slowdown if trade tension continues, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Tuesday. The WTO's quarterly outlook indicator, a composite of seven drivers of trade, showed a reading of 96.3, the weakest since March 2010 and down from 98.6 in November. A reading below 100 signals below-trend growth in trade. "This sustained loss of momentum highlights the urgency of reducing trade tensions, which together with continued political risks and financial volatility could foreshadow a broader economic downturn," the WTO said in a statement. In September 2018, the WTO forecast that global trade growth would slow to 3.7% in 2019 from an estimated 3.9% in 2018, but there could be a steeper slowdown or a rebound depending on policy steps, it said. The quarterly indicator is based on merchandise trade volume in the prev...
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