Try Rascallion one more time in the 2023 Durban July

Betting has opened on the Hollywoodbets Durban July and for the second time in three years Rascallion is the recommended early choice for punters who like an ante-post bet.  

The Vaughan Marshall inmate has been priced up at 16-1 with Candice Bass-Robinson’s three-year-old, Charles Dickens, favourite at 7-2.

This time in 2022 — after the Met — this column suggested Business Day racing fans back Sparkling Water at 33-1 for the July and the filly rose to the occasion, winning by three lengths.

To be honest, supporters of Rascallion must be tearing their hair out. The son of Vercingetorix continually encounters traffic problems at the end of his races — he should be more than a four-time winner.

In the 2021 Durban July, Rascallion was short of room as he began his challenge in the straight and had to settle for fifth place, beaten two lengths by Kommetdieding.

In the Cape Mile at Kenilworth in November, the five-year-old was “steadied at the 200m” but worse was to follow in January’s WSB Met when Sean Veale found his path blocked not once but twice. This resulted in the gelding having to settle for sixth place behind Jet Dark.

There is unlikely to be a stampede to back Charles Dickens at his opening price of 7-2. Punters will want to see how he fares in the forthcoming 2,000m Cape Derby.

In Hollywoodbets’ early July market, Cousin Casey is second favourite at 6-1 and the colt’s trainer, Glen Kotzen, must be equally as frustrated as Marshall. His anguish will have everything to do with the number of bad draws his talented three-year-old has been lumbered with in his short career.

Also a son of Vercingetorix, Cousin Casey overcame gate 11 of 14 to win the Golden Horseshoe on July day in 2022, but no such luck at his two Cape targets, the Cape Guineas and Met.

In the Cape Guineas, Cousin Casey was drawn 14 out of 15 and then had to jump from gate 14 out of 18 in the Met. His finishing place of fifth (beaten less than two lengths) is why he’s been priced up second favourite for the July.

Even so, 6-1 looks “skinny” and punters might be more interested in the 16-1 about Royal Victory who went down by the width of a cigarette paper in last Saturday’s WSB Gauteng Guineas at Turffontein.

Royal Victory, a son of Pathfork bred at Ambiance Stud, is out of the mare Kailani who won four races from 1,450m to 1,800m. If he lines up for the 1,800m SA Classic as expected, it will reveal whether he’s likely to stay the July trip or not.

It’s a surprise to see Mike de Kock’s three-year-old, East Coast (14-1), at a shorter price than Royal Victory, though the SA Classic distance will suit the son of The United States a lot better than the Guineas.

Sparkling Water — our winning July tip last year — has lost her form since that memorable day at Greyville and few will be interested in taking the 16-1 on offer for a second July win.

Safe Passage, stablemate of Sparkling Water, has been priced up at 10-1. He has to be on the shortlist of possible winners as he ran third in last year’s July and finished just half a length behind Puerto Manzano in the Summer Cup.

It’s interesting that trainer Johan Janse van Vuuren skipped the Met with his Betway Summer Cup winner, Puerto Manzano. His opening price of 12-1 is a fair call as he has no stamina limitations and is likely to have Keagan De Melo in the saddle.