Poll shows support for EFF has tanked as voters rally to GNU

The first poll on the government of national unity (GNU) shows broad support for the initiative among ordinary supporters of the ANC and DA, though the research indicates SA has not yet warded off the threat of sliding into populism.

The Social Research Foundation (SRF), whose polls ahead of the 2024 elections had accurately tracked voter sentiment until election day, conducted the study, which found 60% of the population believed the GNU was working well.

The broad study also tracked electoral support for parties inside the GNU, in particular the ANC and the DA. It found support for both had increased by up to 10 percentage points since they decided to work with other parties to form a government.

While support for Jacob Zuma’s MK party held at 12%, support for the EFF has declined to just 6%.

SRF director Frans Cronje told Business Day the results of the study were “great for the coalition” as it showed that the key parties had gained support in its aftermath.

The study showed that 60% of those polled believed the ANC was “doing well” inside the GNU, while 28% felt it was performing poorly. Sixty-six percent of those polled felt the DA was doing well and 20% felt the former official opposition was performing poorly.

“Overall, the majority of people polled are keen on the GNU and its general direction of travel. On whether SA is going in the right direction, the indicators are all up to high levels. The bulk of the respondents think the country is going in the right direction and things are OK.”

However, Cronje added a rider, which he said was clear to him as he analysed the research. “There is no question that the GNU is good for the middle class ... what we are not seeing yet is the needs of the poor, [the needs of] people on the fringes and in the urban periphery met by the GNU. There is a danger that it can easily collapse into becoming a middle-class feel- good project. While it is good, it must be inclusive.”

Cronje said former ANC presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki created 400,000-500,000 net new jobs, while President Cyril Ramaphosa had created only 60,000.

“If he does not get those numbers up to the levels seen under Mandela and Mbeki, there is enough in the data to indicate that there could be a slide back into populism.

“The GNU is popular, yes, and people like it, but it must not degenerate into an elite event,” Cronje said.

Overall, he was positive about the GNU’s prospects; he took a holistic view of SA, tracing its challenges to its history.

The country had been governed “for all its people” for a very short time, while for most of its 400-year history “life was rough for the majority; conflict, wars, persecution and oppression and abuse were the norm.

“It has always been a bit tough in SA, but the GNU has a serious prospect of getting things right,” he said.

The research will be released and publicly available soon.

marriann@businesslive.co.za