With a week to go to elections, the SA Institute for Race Relations (IRR) has published a new election poll that shows both the ANC and the DA in serious trouble. On the national ballot, the ANC has lost its majority dropping to 49.5%, down 5.2 percentage points from the IRR’s previous poll in February. This is an unexpected break from the trend as in previous elections the ANC has strengthened steadily until voting day. However, when modeled on a 71% turnout of voters on May 8, a scenario considered plausible as not everyone will vote, the ANC reaches 51%.   The ANC is also in trouble in Gauteng and stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot. Modeled on a turnout of 70.4%, ANC party support decreases to 39%. In this scenario, the DA also scores 39% of the Gauteng vote, and in an even lower turnout scenario (67.7%) the DA comes in stronger than the ANC at 40% compared to the ANC’s 39%. Turnout scenarios are an important dimension of determining party support and the survey questions...

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