Dlamini-Zuma vs Ramaphosa: here's who consultancy Paternoster Group projects will win
As Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa officially go head to head for the position of ANC president following nominations on Sunday evening, an early prediction forecasts that Ramaphosa will win.
Earlier on Sunday the Paternoster Group projected that based on the numbers available, after the nine provincial general councils completed their official nominations, that Ramaphosa is most likely to be ANC president with 50.3% of the vote.
They project that Dlamini-Zuma will receive 38.9% of the vote, while the abstentions and other votes account for 10.8%. The latter (10.8%) is, however, viewed as the swing vote with potential to tip the scales.
Projection of the branch nomination outcomes and extras for the electoral college:
The so-called unity votes from Mpumalanga, which was logged as 223 abstentions, were included in the abstentions and other votes, analyst Nathan Dufour told the Business Day. Dufour is a senior research associate with Paternoster Group,
"It’s not rocket science, and the projection is not 100% perfect," he said. But it was worthy based on available information.
If delegates vote in accordance with their branch mandates, Ramaphosa will squeak past the 2,398 threshold needed for certain victory, even if the approximately 500 "unity" and "undecided" votes all go to Dlamini-Zuma, according to the Paternoster.
The numbers were collated before the verified and consolidated nominations were made on Sunday night.