LETTER: Gautrain vanity project

Jesse Harber offers a few reasons for expanding Gautrain (“Solve Gautrain’s problems, it is too important to fail”, September 5).

As an individual who personally enjoys using Gautrain I would like to agree with him. Unfortunately, the reasons he provides are vague and the logic exhibits what is known as the “sunk cost fallacy”, where institutions or individuals continue to invest in projects because of the past costs incurred, or capacity developed, rather than a clear-sighted assessment of its future merits.

The more glaring problem is that Harber’s advocacy of “loyal opposition” studiously omits questions of overall cost and affordability. The initial Gautrain was a rushed vanity project linked to the World Cup that was dramatically over budget (reportedly R15bn instead of R7bn). Worse, it continued to receive billions from the state due to ridership guarantees, while other societal priorities were neglected.

The Gautrain will receive an astounding R2.5bn from public funds in 2022. On that evidence, I doubt the likelihood of producing a credible and honest public finance case for expanding Gautrain — though there will always be disreputable consultants who produce nonsensical costings and economic impact assessments with predetermined conclusions “on demand”.

As I wrote in this newspaper over a decade ago: “The flirtation with high-speed rail is a symptom of the government’s preference for trying to solve simple but fundamental socioeconomic problems with high-profile, overhyped projects that bypass ... the real issues”.

Doubling down on that approach is not in any way “loyal” to the public interest. In that regard, the views of consultants and aspirant future CEOs tend to suffer from the same biases as incumbents wanting to expand their bureaucratic empires and politicians lacking the courage to deal decisively with failing, fiscally parasitic projects.

Dr Seán M Muller
Senior research fellow, Johannesburg Institute for Advanced Study

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