The government’s backtracking on spending cuts, further bailouts for SAA, and the reluctance to confront unions, was predicted by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR). The government can do none of these things for a very practical reason; to do so would be to interrupt the cashflow to the cadre deployment networks on which the internal unity of the ANC now depends.

If that increasingly tenuous unity fragments suddenly, the political demise of the ANC as early as 2024 is virtually assured. Hence, expect that from budget to budget SA’s debt projections will be revised upwards...

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