Uncertainty governs Covid-19 projections, so multidisciplinary research is vital
Covid-19 is only eight months old and there are many unknown elements
Graham Barr reminded us in a recent article in this publication of some of the challenges we have encountered while estimating the possible number of SA Covid-19 cases and associated healthcare resource use as part of the SA Covid-19 Modelling Consortium (“Government shunned proper statistical tools to tackle pandemic (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2020-08-23-government-shunned-proper-statistical-tools-to-tackle-pandemic/),” August 23). Among these are the choice of the modelling methods, understating the uncertainty surrounding one's estimates, and assessing the potential effect of regulations.
It is unclear who exactly, or what model, the article was aimed at. One focus was the question of whether the government decision regarding the alcohol ban was based on correct analysis. We are not in a position to comment on this as we had no part in this analysis. But there are a number of other contentions in the article that seem to take aim at what was in fact our wor...
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