The data in the article, Manufacturing and mining will weigh on GDP (June 4), are confusing. NKC African Economics forecasts a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 0% for the first quarter compared with 3.1% in 2017’s fourth quarter. But on an annual comparison the forecast is for growth of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2018. FNB is forecasting a contraction of about 1% quarter on quarter. Is NKC’s 0% a real (at 2010 constant prices) forecast? They compare growth for the first quarter to growth in the fourth quarter of 2017. FNB’s forecast is -1% for the first quarter of 2018 compared with the first quarter of 2017. Is it for a (real) seasonally adjusted growth rate or not? Is NKC’s "annual comparison for growth of 2.1% during the first quarter of 2018" the same as FNB’s first quarter 2018 compared with first quarter 2017 forecast? Fanie Brink Bothaville
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