EDITORIAL: Sadc should act over Mozambique

For weeks, Mozambicans have been taking to the streets, protesting against the results of a dodgy election held on October 9. The region’s leaders have been wringing their hands in the hope that the political crisis will resolve itself.

The protests were sparked by complaints that the Frelimo government had rigged the election results, which, if accepted, will prolong its stay in power.

According to the CNE, the official elections body, Frelimo, which has been in power since independence, won 70% of votes cast. Venâncio Mondlane, an opposition leader, received 20%.

EU observers reported widespread irregularities while those from the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) declared the poll free and fair. The Constitutional Council, a higher elections body, has yet to declare the results.

Last week, however, the conflict took a turn for the worse, with devastating effects for economic activity. SA authorities were forced to close borders with Mozambique. Hundreds of trucks carrying goods from and to Mozambique were parked on either side of the borders as the protests escalated.

More than 30 people have been killed by police and soldiers who regard the problem as a law-and-order issue. It is not. It is political. Apart from shooting unarmed protesters, the Frelimo administration has also shut down internet and social media networks as it panics.

While it is too soon to quantify the economic cost of the congestion, estimates are that it is in the tens of millions of rand to the beleaguered country of 34-million people.

In the long term though, the cost will be much higher, as SA discovered in 2022 when Transnet workers went on a wage strike. SA’s ports became the biggest losers, and Mozambique’s, which are operated by Grindrod, were the biggest winners through this diversion.

Now, these gains are at risk. If the instability continues for much longer, vessels will just bypass Mozambique’s ports, as they did with SA’s in 2022. This traffic never returns.

The protests are the latest setback to Mozambique’s fortunes. An insurgency by Islamic group Islamic State, has stalled lucrative energy projects which could have improved living standards of Mozambican citizens.

The protests have come at a bad time for Mozambique. It comes just weeks before the festive season starts and the country’s tourism sector was preparing to receive visitors. This may not happen this year.

The Mozambican government has shown chronic ineptitude in the handling of the issue starting with its characterisation. It cannot be trusted with a durable solution. On the eve of the election, gunmen shot and killed Mondlane’s lawyer and spokesperson. It is still not known who ordered the hit. The country’s independent media has been muzzled, and the judiciary enjoys little trust.

Worse, Mondlane, who is in hiding, has said he survived an assassination. His death — in or outside Mozambique — would turn him into a martyr and probably turn the protests into a movement that can turn into a conflagration that may spread into the region.

It is important he stays alive. But this is a task that the Frelimo government can hardly fulfil. Mozambique’s neighbours need to step up to ensure that the protests do not spread. They need to do this for the people of Mozambique and their self-interest.

Mondlane, who has been switching the protests on and off, has promised new instructions to his mostly youthful supporters today.

Sadc’s leaders have already accepted Frelimo’s victory though Mozambique’s own processes have yet to fully unfold. Still, it is not too late for the region to act.

A Constitutional Council ruling that upholds Frelimo’s victory is unlikely to be accepted by the opposition’s supporters. Equally, a declaration that overturns the ruling party’s victory is unlikely to be accepted by Frelimo.

What is clear is that the street demonstrations show that Frelimo can no longer claim legitimacy or convince the world that it still enjoys the trust of the people. Under its rule, corruption and poverty have grown. The government has shown worrying tolerance for both.

As a start, Sadc leaders, through its organ for politics and security, need to urgently call on Maputo to stop shooting unarmed youths.

Ahead of the November 20 summit, Sadc needs to remind the Frelimo government that it cannot run the country through soldiers and police. A two-year power-sharing arrangement before another election might be what stops Mozambique from eating itself up.