EDITORIAL: IMF SA forecasts disappointing
SA should certainly be fixing the roof while the global sun is shining
International Monetary Fund (IMF) economists have published their forecasts for the world economy and their updated forecasts on SA are disappointing but probably dated. The IMF now sees SA’s economy growing at just 0.9% in 2018 and again in 2019, down from its October projections of 1.1% and 1.6%. It talks of "more subdued growth prospects in SA … as increased political uncertainty weighs on confidence and investment". Chances are, though, that this reflects a pre-ANC conference perspective. Other economists have been revising their forecasts upward in recent weeks, with the Reserve Bank last week lifting its projection for 2018 from 1.2% to 1.4% and for 2019 from 1.5% to 1.6%. That’s still dismal in a country whose population is growing at about 1.7%, but it is starting to look better, at least in the short term. Crucially, if the new political leadership starts to make some of the hard decisions needed to reform the economy and boost its growth rate, medium to longer-term numbers...
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