When Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba addressed economists at the Thomson Reuters economist of the year awards in mid-July, he noted that the economy had just entered recession. "Lower-than-expected growth is likely this year, which will put strain on our fiscal framework. Going into the October medium-term budget policy statement, we will have some tough decisions to make," he said. Just how tough is something the minister has been remarkably shy about discussing, even though he has had much to say about the need to transform the economy. He has promised, repeatedly, that the government will continue on the path of fiscal consolidation. But, he has entirely failed to start managing expectations ahead of his October budget speech about just how tough that will be. Whether that is because he refuses to believe the numbers that are no doubt being crunched within the Treasury, or because he reckons he can somehow spin his way out of trouble, is not clear. The fiscal squeeze is, in large ...

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