Tuesday’s vote of no confidence has offered a glimpse of a new political landscape. The ANC claimed victory, but the most important outcome is that it heightened the possibility that the party will split following the December conference. And the reason that risk has risen is that the recent events, including the debate, have drawn very starkly the division between the Constitutionalists and the Party Faithful — those who believe the party’s interests are more important than those of the country. It seems more likely now that this is the fault line on which the ANC will have its third split. It is worth noting that after both of the previous conferences, the party fractured. Mangaung in 2012 brought the birth of the EFF and Polokwane five years earlier had given rise to the Congress of the People. In two other breakaways in the tripartite alliance, the United Democratic Movement was formed in 1997 after Bantu Holomisa was fired from the ANC, and in Cosatu, the National Union of Meta...

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