EMPTY POCKETS
EDITORIAL: SA could still face 'consumer recession'
The latest retail sales figures from Statistics SA are better than the market expected, but that doesn’t make them good — and they don’t necessarily allay concerns that SA could face a "consumer recession". Retail sales in May were up 1.7% in real terms compared to May 2016, below the 2% in April but still well ahead of the market’s consensus forecast, which was for a decline of 0.3%. Measured over the three months from March to May, sales were up 1.5% on the same period in 2016, which is an improvement on the first quarter, and should help the second-quarter GDP figures. But these days it’s a case of welcoming even the smallest signs of good news. So for example Stanlib economist Kevin Lings points out that, importantly, the 12-month moving average growth rate remains positive at 0.7% "suggesting the retail sector is still managing to avoid a recession, albeit by a small margin". Whether it will continue to do so is a question, in a year in which households face significant headwin...
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