When finance minister Enoch Godongwana presents the third iteration of the 2025/26 budget on May 21, he will be doing so against the backdrop of domestic and global events that have shifted the fiscal terrain for many African governments this year.

Revenue and growth projections are likely to be revised downwards from the budget proposal tabled on March 12, and the uncertainty of the 10%, 25% and/or 31% tariffs on SA exports to the US looms large over several export-driven sectors. In this context, plugging a R75bn revenue shortfall over the next three years will probably result in some tough choices and trade-offs made across government spending...

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