Amid the outcry over US President Donald Trump's tariffs it’s worth reflecting on our recent history of protectionism. While everyone seems to agree SA must diversify its exports to cut its reliance on an increasingly unreliable US, few make the connection between SA’s already poor export performance and the tariff barriers it has erected over the past 15 years.

Trump promises his tariffs will boost manufacturing jobs and rebalance US trade with the rest of the world. Mainstream economists counter that the trade war he has unleashed will severely damage the US economy, which depends on its trading partners to provide inputs it can’t produce competitively, or at all. In a world of complex supply chains, the tariffs could cut exports at the same time as they cut imports...

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