STUART THEOBALD: Understanding that Trump runs on gut instinct will help shape response
Knowing how Trump makes decisions could shed light on how to manage the tariff crisis
The 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 lockdowns, Donald Trump’s tariffs. These events create radical uncertainty — a technical term that means an event to which it was impossible to put a probability (and are sometimes therefore called “black swans”).
The three have different features, to be sure. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered a loss of confidence in financial markets, emerged from many panicked human decisions. The pandemic was more like an earthquake or volcano, a natural phenomenon we know will happen but can’t predict when, though the impact of the phenomenon was heavily affected by human decisions. The tariffs chaos is the result of a powerful man in a powerful position making shocking and unexpected decisions. ..
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