NATASHA MARRIAN: MK will be sticking around for as long as Jacob Zuma does

It is difficult to ignore the signs when history begins repeating itself. In 2010 the newly established Congress of the People (COPE) held a messy elective conference that in effect ended its short-lived status as a rising star in SA politics. 

Could the same be unfolding in Jacob Zuma’s MK party? The answer to this question lies in its commitment, or lack thereof, to internal democracy. COPE disintegrated because it failed to put in place a legitimate, agreed-on process to elect its leaders.

A key characteristic of the first significant splinter party from the ANC under Zuma’s presidency was the two strong, dominant personalities at its helm: Mbhazima Shilowa and Mosiuoa Lekota. COPE’s electoral support declined even quicker than its ascent to 7% of the vote in its inaugural election in 2009, as the party ripped itself in two as the battle between Shilowa and Lekota raged.  

MK is a different beast, built and fashioned by the whims of one man: Zuma. In recent days cracks emerged between his daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, and party secretary-general Floyd Shivambu. Zuma-Sambudla hurled expletives at Shivambu on social media and was forced by her father to apologise. She complied, but her lengthy “apology” did not refer to Shivambu by name, even though her posts on X were aimed directly at him. 

The incident exposed simmering tension between Shivambu, the former EFF deputy president who joined MK only in August, and a core inner circle at MK who were involved in getting the party off the ground in December 2023. 

It is not simply a battle between Shivambu and Zuma’s daughter, who also faces terrorism charges for her alleged role in stoking the deadly July 2021 riots. There is growing unease in party ranks between those who helped form the party and those who joined only after its strong showing election. 

MK has had four secretaries-general since its inception, and its very genesis was contested, with Jabulani Khumalo alleging that he, not Zuma, was the founder of the organisation. There are also deep differences within MK’s parliamentary caucus, which as the official opposition in parliament has had little impact in any substantial debate. 

Still, this does not mean that the MK party will fade from the political spotlight just yet. Ironically, the EFF is a prime example showing that such skirmishes need not pose an existential threat. The EFF and MK are similar in one respect — a strong, charismatic leader who exerts ultimate control over all decision-making in the party.

The departure of long-time EFF member, leader and MP Mbuyiseni Ndlozi shows that Malema’s will wins out in the end. Ndlozi was isolated and suspended, barred from contesting in the party’s elective congress after he was told by Shivambu, in confidence, that he would be leaving the party.

Malema felt Ndlozi could no longer be trusted because he did not alert the party’s leadership to Shivambu’s decision, and just like that the latter’s political career in the EFF was terminated. 

Despite holding elective conferences, the EFF revolves around Malema. Its electoral support began declining in last year’s election, not least because of MK’s emergence, but should Malema depart its decline would undoubtedly accelerate. 

The same goes for MK. Shivambu may remain as its secretary- general or he may be booted out. It won’t matter. Zuma is the planet around which MK orbits. As long as he remains its president, it will remain intact, even though it may appear undemocratic and chaotic from the outside.

Zuma has issued a directive that MK will not hold elective conferences yet, as these could be “divisive”. So as long as he needs MK to serve his purpose and as long as he is around, it will remain. 

The key question is whether voters’ perception of MK will alter as the internal shenanigans by its leaders are exposed. Will the 2.2-million people who voted for MK continue to view it as a force for change if its leaders are squabbling on social media rather than speaking up for them in parliament? 

The ANC’s decline in support began under Zuma as the party grew increasingly self-serving and inward looking. The same spectre is starting to loom over MK. Like Malema, Zuma may have the gravitational pull to hold the party together, but he will not be able to prevent voters from turning elsewhere — as many erstwhile EFF voters did last year. 

This is why in the coming months the IFP will be watched closely. Its performance in recent by-elections in KwaZulu-Natal has been strong, which could be telling. 

Zuma still exerts authority and influence over the unseemly hornets nest that is MK, but voters are more difficult to control. 

• Marrian is Business Day editor at large.