We are a predicting species, hard-wired to identify potential patterns and to complete them in our heads by anticipating likely outcomes.

Most of the predictive strategies we developed over millennia have been woefully inaccurate. We’ve tried reading stars and tea leaves. We’ve tried listening to prophets and visiting oracles. Even when we think we’re using logic, we’re often not — as occurs in the gambler’s fallacy (seeing five spins of the roulette wheel landing on black doesn’t mean you should put all your money on red for the next one)...

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