DUMA GQUBULE: SA cannot continue on doomsday path
The country needs alternatives to failed austerity policies and structural reforms
Forecasting the performance of the SA economy during 2025 is the easiest thing to do. At the start of each year all that is required is to shave about a third off the government’s latest GDP growth forecast, which is found in the previous year’s medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS).
The 2019 MTBPS admitted: “Over the past nine budget cycles government has overestimated GDP growth in its forecasts.” Every year the National Treasury was overestimating the benefits for the economy of its structural reforms and underestimating the negative effects of austerity on GDP growth. During the course of each year the Treasury and economists reduced their GDP growth forecasts. ..
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