Forecasting the performance of the SA economy during 2025 is the easiest thing to do. At the start of each year all that is required is to shave about a third off the government’s latest GDP growth forecast, which is found in the previous year’s medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS).  

The 2019 MTBPS admitted: “Over the past nine budget cycles government has overestimated GDP growth in its forecasts.” Every year the National Treasury was overestimating the benefits for the economy of its structural reforms and underestimating the negative effects of austerity on GDP growth. During the course of each year the Treasury and economists reduced their GDP growth forecasts. ..

Subscribe now to unlock this article.

Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).

There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.

Cancel anytime.

Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.

Speech Bubbles

Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.