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President Cyril Ramaphosa. File photo: THEO JEPTHA
President Cyril Ramaphosa. File photo: THEO JEPTHA

The ANC is undoubtedly in succession terrain — despite protests to the contrary. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s second and last term as party president draws to a close in 2027, and the ANC’s pick of a replacement will contribute to how it performs in the 2029 national and provincial elections. 

While the decision on whether to disband the ANC in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal is ostensibly about their poor electoral performance, it will also to a degree depend on how factions inside the party’s national executive committee position themselves ahead of the looming succession battle. 

Though it will be some time before the succession race gains momentum, the front-runners at present are incumbent deputy president Paul Mashatile and secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. There are also rumblings about a possible KwaZulu-Natal candidate to counter Jacob Zuma’s MK party.

Police minister Senzo Mchunu, a former KwaZulu-Natal premier, has been spoken about in circles loyal to Ramaphosa. The possibility of a female candidate, which was understood to be Ramaphosa’s preference, appears to be diminishing for now due to the ANC’s precarious electoral position. 

Then there are dark horse candidates such as chair Gwede Mantashe and Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi, who has lately been attempting to project himself as the torchbearer of government policy nationally. His push for the implementation of the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act and National Health Insurance has been louder even than the ministers who steered those controversial pieces of legislation through their various stages.

He even has a lobby group pushing for him, including a WhatsApp group called “Lesufi For Future President”, though he naturally denies any presidential ambitions. Then again, power-hungry ANC predators are generally coy about their outsize ambitions.

A move to disband the ANC in Gauteng and put the party under the leadership of a task team in the province could therefore remove the power bases of two powerful potential contenders. Gauteng is Mashatile’s base and his ally, Lebogang Maile, is solidly in charge of the provincial executive committee, despite Lesufi’s hubris. 

Lesufi contesting for the presidency with Mashatile still in the race would split their support and potentially neutralise both. However, some believe Lesufi is a proxy for Mashatile, expressing not his own but the deputy president’s disdain for the government of national unity, which includes the DA. 

Mashatile and Mbalula have both spoken about the possibility of the provincial structures being disbanded, in ways that express their preferences. Mashatile said earlier this week that he did not blame the ANC in Gauteng for the party’s performance there, while Mbalula is on record saying the party is prepared to “lose friends” to get the two provinces back on track. 

But there is another dynamic in Gauteng that could damage the prospects of a candidate backed by the province even if the provincial leadership under Lesufi is not disbanded when the ANC national executive committee meets next month. 

The conference that elected Lesufi and the Gauteng ANC provincial executive committee was controversial — the courts set aside the outcome of the elective conference of one of its largest regions, Ekurhuleni, after the provincial conference was held. The judgment in that case was scathing about the conduct of then regional secretary TK Nciza, and the unlawful manner in which he excluded branches from voting in that conference.

To make matters worse, Nciza went on to be elected provincial secretary. The ANC actually promoted him after he had presided over that messy conference, later found to be unlawful and invalid. At the time senior ANC leaders were unhappy about the conference going ahead and despite protests from former provincial secretary David Makhura (who was overruled), the gathering proceeded, with many branches selectively set aside.

While the ANC adhered to the court ruling and put a task team in charge of the region, the role of the questionable leadership elected there and their participation in the provincial conference has never been fully dealt with, calling into question Lesufi and his provincial executive committee’s election in the aftermath of that gathering. 

The legitimacy of the election of Lesufi, Nciza and the provincial executive committee is still a source of deep unhappiness in the province. This grouping is up for re-election in 2026, and whether they will be trusted to lead the party into the election that year remains to be seen.

Either way, the leadership that is in place ahead of the 2027 succession race is on its knees after a dismal electoral performance, clear defiance of the party’s national leadership over coalitions in the metros, and a brimming internal rebellion. 

Gauteng is likely to play a key role in the 2027 succession battle, for good or for ill. 

• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.

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