WANDILE SIHLOBO: SA must remain a reliable food supplier to Southern Africa

SA’s agriculture and agribusiness sectors have a broader responsibility for food security beyond the country’s borders. The Southern Africa region leans heavily on SA for food supplies.

This is clear from SA’s agricultural exports. The country exported about $13.2bn of agricultural and processed food products in 2023, according to Trade Map data. Almost 40% of these exports were to the African continent.

Notably, about 90c in every dollar of SA’s agricultural exports to the continent is earned from Southern Africa. Grains, fruits, vegetables and selected beverages are typically high on SA’s list of agriculture and food exports to the region.

Not all countries rely equally on SA’s agriculture and food industry. Seven countries dominate: Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zambia, which accounted for 81% of SA’s agricultural exports to the continent in 2023. In fact, over the past five years these countries have, on average, accounted for 80% of SA’s agricultural exports to Africa each year.

In the case of the staple grain of the Southern Africa region, maize, SA has remained a reliable supplier to the region even in times of drought. It is therefore vital that even in the challenging 2023/24 season, where SA’s maize harvest is down 22% from the previous year to 12.8-million tonnes, the exports continue.

SA must remain a reliable supplier of food products to the region as it provides stability and ensures SA’s regional food security anchor position.

Between May and mid-October, SA exported about 1.03-million tonnes of maize. Except for the volume that went to Saudi Arabia, all of these exports were for the Southern Africa region. There are likely to be more exports in the coming week, as the export forecast for the season is 1.9-million tonnes.

This is down notably from the 3.44-million tonnes of exports in the last season because of the poor harvest. The large maize carry-over stock from the previous season has helped boost SA’s maize supplies as an addition to the harvest.

In some countries, in seasons like the one we are leaving behind, where the El Niño-induced drought led to a poor harvest, there would be a temptation to impose an export curb. However, SA maintains an open-market policy, where export activity continues and the market adjusts prices guided by available information.

The vital matter in SA is for market players to regularly publish their export volumes through Southern African Grain Information Services, so there is a general understanding of the available supplies and prices, to adjust for potential risks.

This open-market approach has been practised since the deregulation of agricultural markets in 1997. Since then SA’s grain and broader agricultural markets have operated relatively efficiently. Our sound history shows no need for intervention or grain reserves in future. SA’s open-market policy stance of allowing food trade to always take place even in years of production stress is important for food stability in the region.

Various other important exports include prepared or processed foods, wheat, apples and pears, maize meal, sugar, fruit juices, wine, soybean oil, rice, soups and sunflower oil.

This strong linkage between SA’s agricultural exports to the Southern Africa region and the vast responsibility of regional food security has led us to argue for caution whenever there is trade friction in various products between SA and other countries in the region. Millions of people could become victims of high prices when countries restrict trade, as could be the case with the decisions by Botswana and Namibia to temporarily ban imports of high-quality SA vegetables.

Equally, SA’s reaction could have a significant effect on the region’s food security stability. Thus, the ideal path is always to address trade discomforts diplomatically, prioritise regional agriculture and avoid friction.

• Sihlobo is chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and an extraordinary senior lecturer in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.