subscribe Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Subscribe now
Joe Biden. Picture: Elizabeth Frantz
Joe Biden. Picture: Elizabeth Frantz

After a half-century of prominence on the national stage, Joe Biden was coerced into stepping aside as America’s commander and chief. Will he, should he, go quietly?

Biden is not consistently alert, yet at times still displays high awareness of events, and he has accrued deep insights from his many decades engaging with world leaders. For instance, that there is nothing admirable about pursuing a ceasefire to end a conflict when a lasting peace is within reach. 

If the US had not insisted on “full and unconditional surrender,” World War 2 could have ended sooner and without the use of nuclear weapons. But then the foundation would not have been set for decades of relative peace accompanied by extraordinary global upliftment. The Cold War ending provoked similar results.

Biden would no doubt prefer to tame authoritarian regimes hostile to today’s rules-based international order the way that then-candidate Ronald Reagan outlined in 1980. Reagan’s plan, which was widely ridiculed, aimed to overwhelm the Soviet military by outspending it. Eventually, a “Star Wars” missile intercept plan emerged, which alerted Soviet generals that their economy, and the ideology that constrained it, constituted existential vulnerabilities to their regime.

Iran’s regime is similarly vulnerable, but it has been effective at asymmetric warfare and at persuading proxies to do its dirty work, militarily and ideologically. Many trace the Soviet Union’s collapse to its invasion of Afghanistan. If Iran’s externally and internally unpopular government falls, its support of Hamas, which led to the savage Nova festival attack in Israel on October 7 2023, will be seen as a pivotal misstep.

Israel has vowed to retaliate after Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles targeting urban centres and military targets in Israel. The deterrent dissuading Israel and the US from attacking Iran has been Hezbollah’s ability to rain missiles down on Israel from adjacent Lebanon. With that threat diminished by the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership, Israel might target physical assets in Iran or its political and military leaders. 

Alternatively, or in addition, Biden could offer to strike Iran’s weapons production facilities, including nuclear, if Israel “holds fire” until after next month’s US elections. Biden won’t authorise US forces to target the Ayatollah, but on a balance-of-risks assessment there is a compelling case for significantly undermining Iran’s capacity to destabilise the region and supply arms to Russia. The Iranian regime would be unlikely to then meaningfully challenge the US, preferring instead to establish a working understanding with the incoming administration.

The grim state of Gaza had long been useful to various authoritarian regimes in the region and beyond, as they would portray it as symbolising Western oppression while they denied their citizens, particularly women, basic freedoms. The Middle East has subsequently been evolving from over-reliance on commodity exporting towards integrating far more meaningfully into the global economy. The Emirates led the way, but the Saudis and others are making bold moves.

Unless Iran’s militancy is curbed it remains unreasonable to expect that Gazans will cease to be used as pawns by regional rivals. Fixing Gaza is an extraordinary challenge that will take decades. No country wants to get involved; the first tall order is achieving some semblance of security.

The various voices commenting on the crisis have avoided acknowledging what stabilising Gaza entails. Arab neighbours have long shown as little sympathy for the plight of Gazans as some chauvinists display towards rape victims. The equivalent Western indifference is expressed by accusing Israel of genocide instead of supporting solution paths.

Gaza’s best path to peace and prosperity begins with Biden authorising surgical strikes to reduce Iran’s ability to destabilise the region. Those nations that sought not to understand or assist — but rather to judge — should then embrace nation-building by working on the ground to secure and rebuild Gaza. If they don’t know how to create large numbers of jobs, where better to learn than at the crossroads of Africa and Eurasia.

• Hagedorn (@shawnhagedorn) is an independent strategy adviser.

subscribe Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Subscribe now

Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.

Speech Bubbles

Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.