NATASHA MARRIAN: Penny has yet to drop for failing ANC as it runs out of voter currency

Gradually, then suddenly. That is how the ANC’s political power has waned in SA over the last decade-and-a-half.

While it is early days, there is little evidence that this penny has truly dropped for the former liberation movement. Sure, the rhetoric is there, but it is not matched by action — at least not with the urgency required from a party on the electoral ropes.

History is awash with examples of parties that failed to grasp the gravitas of the moment, deepening the internal crisis brought on by a poor election result and resulting in further erosion in support down the line. The Indian National Congress springs to mind after its first electoral defeat in 1979 after three decades in power.

The ANC’s first major electoral setback was the loss of the Western Cape in the 2009 election, coincidentally the first election the party contested with former president Jacob Zuma as its face. A slow erosion of support began in that election, continuing into the 2011 local election, but it peaked with its loss of the cities of Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay in 2016.

It was in the aftermath of the 2016 local election that the “gradually” for the ANC quickly morphed into “suddenly” — subsequent elections marked a sharp dip in the electorate’s tolerance for ANC excesses. After each election — 2016, 2019 and 2021 — the party turned up its rhetoric on renewal, yet little changed.

It got rid of a rotten president in Zuma, but continued to mollify and embrace both the man who sought to sell the country to the Gupta brothers and his allies. Unity became its buzzword, but despite this twisted attempt to rescue the party by uniting with crooks its support continued to decline.

Slavish promises

It all came crashing down late last year when Zuma decided he needed a new political home for himself and his minions who had brought the state to its knees through state capture and corruption — the MK party. The ANC once again looked on helplessly as Zuma orchestrated its demise in another election.

Throughout all of this, promises of renewal and reform flowed slavishly from the mouths of ANC leaders without action, at least organisationally. This week President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that he had sought an explanation from his newly appointed justice minister, Thembi Simelane, after allegations reported by Daily Maverick and News24 that she received a dodgy “loan” from a third party contractor implicated in the looting of the VBS Mutual Bank during her tenure as Polokwane mayor.

It is a laughably limp-wristed response from the president, who just oversaw his party’s support drop 17 percentage points in the election, which took place less than three months ago.

A report by the Centre for Risk Analysis released this week, “GNU’s Corruption Conundrum”, shows the broader impact of the ANC’s sanctimonious lip service to fighting corruption without action to match. The report indicates that corruption allegations against an eye-wateringly high number of its top leadership, the 87 member national executive committee (NEC), could lead to the undoing of the government of national unity (GNU) formed in the aftermath of the May election.

The report shows that 25 individuals in the NEC have been linked to “serious corruption” through the state capture report, via the Special Investigating Unit or the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, or the Hawks. A further 26 NEC members have been strongly implicated in corruption in media reports, and 10 more are “weakly implicated” in corruption through association with individuals or institutions. Only 26 NEC members have zero known links to allegations of corruption.

Competent administration

Yet it is the NEC that is tasked with reforming and renewing the ANC. Another report from the auditor-general this week sheds light on another area that for more than a decade has been crying out for reform with little response. Auditor-general Tsakane Maluleke once again painted a bleak picture of the state of local government finances — only 34 of 257 municipalities received a clean audit.

Competent administration is the bedrock of a strong state, and while there are pockets of excellence locally, provincially and nationally, the ANC has failed to recognise the importance of putting in place administrators who are able to keep the state functioning as it should.

These two reports together explain the ANC’s electoral decline, but unfortunately for the party it is well into the “suddenly” phase of its decline. On its current trajectory, the ANC will take a further hammering in the 2026 local government and 2029 national and provincial elections.

The controversy about Simelane is but a spoke in a wheel that is spinning lightning fast down a hill to political oblivion. 

• Marrian is Business Day editor-at-large.