NATASHA MARRIAN: Shivambu’s EFF exit paves the way for others to join MK

The evanescence of the EFF’s political strategy came back to bite it this week as its deputy president walked away from the party he helped form and build, to join Jacob Zuma’s MK party.

And it was not just the party Floyd Shivambu stepped back from but the “brother” he helped build it with. He and EFF leader Julius Malema have a relationship spanning two decades, after their first encounter back in 2004.

The move would have been considered a political impossibility just seven years ago when in parliament Shivambu likened Zuma to dictators Mobutu Sese Seko and Idi Amin, and declared to ANC MPs that the man he said was selling the country to the Gupta brothers would soon round on them and “kill them”.

“Jacob Zuma is going to kill you. All of you who are thinking you are on his side now, you are going to vote for him today, but in the future he’s going to kill all of you,” Shivambu said as parliament debated a motion of no confidence in the then president.

His metaphorical comment was prophetic. A mere seven years later Zuma’s six-month-old political outfit helped slash the ANC’s tally of the vote by 17 percentage points in the May 29 polls — a devastating electoral blow that forced it into a coalition nationally and in three provinces. It was the equivalent of a political massacre, and it looks as though Zuma is just getting started.

What does Shivambu’s departure mean for the EFF and the broader political landscape? For the EFF it is a devastating loss — Shivambu represented the brains trust of the party and was a key organiser. Dozens are likely to follow him, from across its structures.

The effect on the EFF was reflected on Malema’s face at a media briefing on Thursday, when Shivambu announced his resignation. He appeared crushed. But it should hardly have come as a surprise to Malema, though he insisted that he was shocked. Under his guidance the EFF’s political strategy became closely aligned with the ANC’s erstwhile Zuma faction very quickly after the man they once dubbed a Gupta puppet resigned from the governing party.

The EFF strategy morphed along the factional lines within the ANC, benefiting electorally in 2019 from Zuma’s departure, which explains a spike in its performance in KwaZulu-Natal in that election and a huge drop after MK was formed.

Malema opted to take his party down this path, rather than cementing a strategy of taking principled positions against the excesses of the ANC. Before that it had led the charge against Zuma in parliament, the courts and even the streets.

Its sudden political backing of Zuma and an intriguing tea party at Nkandla in 2021 resulted in the emergence of a strategic political shift rapid enough to induce whiplash. The EFF leaders and Zuma were on the same side again.

It is unsurprising that Shivambu could jump ship without blinking. He has simply mimicked the ease with which Malema has flip-flopped on principle for short-term political gain.

Shivambu has leftist roots, in the Young Communist League initially and then the SA Communist Party and union federation Cosatu. His interest in ANC politics heightened as Zuma ascended to power in the ANC in 2007 — he has often spoken about the party’s policy conference that year as the defining moment.

In a recent interview with political analyst Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh, Shivambu said conference discussions on the national democratic revolution, and on “white monopoly capital” as the enemy of the ANC, reignited his political passion for the party.

By backing Zuma again after his resignation as president, Malema and the EFF made it easy for their leaders and members to view the former president’s party as their natural political home.

The bleeding is unlikely to stop with Shivambu, particularly as the EFF’s long-predicted electoral descent was ushered in on May 29.

For his part, Malema may be disappointed but he should not be surprised. He admitted at a media briefing during coalition talks that he had asked Zuma to join the EFF ahead of the election instead of forming his own outfit. Zuma didn’t bite.

The EFF and other parties that stepped into the ANC factional play after Zuma’s departure will continue to shed support to MK as the new — growing, at least for now — political outfit in town.

For MK, Shivambu’s move shows that Zuma is seeking to consolidate his gains and coalesce those opposed to the ANC under the MK banner. He is building.

Shivambu is an organiser who is adept at policy formulation (never mind how hare-brained that policy is) — an ideal candidate to recruit if depth and organisational muscle is what MK is after.

For the country, it means Zuma is getting down to the nuts and bolts of organisation building, which has never been his strength. He is more adept at destruction. During his tenure as president, the ANC suffered at least three significant splits, all with him at their centre. Even ANC ally Cosatu succumbed to a split he instigated with the expulsion of the National Union of Metalworkers of SA and then general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi.

Given the volatility characterising Zuma’s MK, Shivambu’s tenure there may also be short-lived, since his longevity depends entirely on the whims of one man. Then again, this is no different from his fate and tenure inside the EFF, which has also always rested in Malema’s hands. 

• Marrian is Business Day editor at large.