WANDILE SIHLOBO: Harsh start to crop season as prospects fall

SA’s 2024/25 winter crop season is under way. The start of the season has been somewhat harsh, with drier weather conditions than before in about May and June in the Western Cape, followed by excessive rains since the beginning of July.

Damage to the newly planted crop appears to have been minimal thus far, though the excessive rains have caused disruption and damage to infrastructure in some regions of the Western Cape, such as Citrusdal and some residential areas.

We pay close attention to the Western Cape regarding winter crops because of the province’s big contribution in this area. About 70% of the winter wheat plantings for the 2024/25 season are in the Western Cape. The area planted for barley, canola and oats is far more prominent in the province as a winter rainfall region. 

The prospects for the 2024/25 season are not as optimistic as last season, at least according to the preliminary planting data. The crop estimates committee forecasts SA’s 2024/25 winter crop plantings at 794,000ha, down 3% year on year. The big areas of decline are barley and wheat. Canola, oats and sweet lupines show increased area plantings, but these are insufficient to lift the overall area plantings for the season. 

For wheat, the preliminary area plantings are at 502,000ha, down 7% from the 2023/24 season. This is the lowest area planting in seven years. The sharpest declines in area plantings are in the Free State and Limpopo. The Western and Northern Cape show a minor decline in area plantings. Other provinces such as the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, which are relatively small producers, also show a mild decrease in area plantings.

The big decline in winter wheat plantings in the Free State and Limpopo is unsurprising. The northern regions of SA experienced a harsh midsummer drought, causing big crop losses. The farmers in some of these regions are under financial strain, and are thus understandably reluctant to increase the winter wheat plantings. Moreover, wheat prices have moderated this year, down about 5% year on year.

Well below

If weather conditions remain favourable for the rest of the season, particularly in the Western Cape, and the five-year average yield of 3,78 tonnes/ha is achieved from the area of 502,000ha, the winter wheat harvest could be about 1.89-million tonnes. It would also be down 7% year on year and well below the five-year average winter wheat harvest of 2.02-million tonnes.

For barley, the 2024/25 area planting is at 102,000ha, down 5% year on year. This is also well below the five-year planting area of 115,000ha. Assuming an average five-year yield of 3.36 tonnes/ha from 102,000ha, a harvest of 342,000 tonnes is plausible. This would still be well below the five-year average of 389,000 tonnes.

Positively, the 2024/25 canola plantings are estimated at 146,000ha, 11% more than the previous season. This is the largest area on record. There has been a switch from some winter wheat and barley traditional areas to canola because of price competitiveness.

Following a similar approach of assuming an average five-year yield of 1.8 tonnes/ha from 146,000ha, a record canola harvest of 263,000  may materialise at the end of the season.

Still, it is early in the 2024/25 winter crop season, and this planting data is preliminary. The crop estimates committee will release another area planted estimate and first production forecast on August 28. The data will help shape our view of the possible wheat import size for the next marketing year in SA. The current wheat marketing year ends in September.

Weather conditions are the most important factor to keep an eye on. If the rains remain moderate, with sufficient days of sunshine, the prospects for the season may improve.

• Sihlobo is chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.