WANDILE SIHLOBO: Farmers hit by a trio of tribulations in a week

Through the past 30 years of exceptional progress, SA’s agriculture has confronted numerous challenges that have had varying effects across subsectors. This past week presented three challenges, the effects of which will become clearer in the weeks ahead.

In the northern regions of SA, particularly Limpopo, the potato crop has suffered losses because of frost after an unusually cold spell. The most affected crops are the ones planted from May onwards. The scale and effects of the damage at national level are not yet clear, but rough estimates and anecdotes from industry players suggest we are unlikely to experience a national supply crisis. Still, the farmers in the affected regions will suffer financial losses.   

Various regions of the Western Cape have been affected by heavy storms, with reports of infrastructure damage. Whether agricultural activities in the province experienced significant damage remains unclear, but we suspect the effect will mainly be on public infrastructure.

However, this is a busy citrus harvesting period in this region, and the bad weather has delayed activities in some fields. Moreover, the winter crop season (wheat, canola, barley and oats) is at its early stage, which would have spared the fields from major damage given that there was no heavy erosion.

Challenges

In the Eastern Cape the rains in the southern regions also slowed the citrus harvest, though at this early stage we have not heard of any damage to the harvest. Field and agricultural logistics activity should gain momentum during the week as weather conditions improve.

But not all things are well in the province. Foot-and-mouth disease remains a challenge in the dairy industry, and it and government regulators are seeking ways to address the problem in the province.

Even more concerning is that animal disease tends to have broad effects, even on industries not directly affected by the disease. For example, in 2022 when SA suffered a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, key trading partners such as China temporarily banned SA wool imports. This happened even though foot-and-mouth disease did not affect the sheep industry. China lifted the ban months later after intergovernment engagement at a senior level.

Since foot-and-mouth disease is now mainly concentrated in the Eastern Cape — and even closer to the sheep industry (unlike in 2022) — trading partners may again have concerns. Rather than waiting for our trading partners to respond, the SA authorities should proactively communicate and assure them of other livestock products’ safety and handling methods. 

These challenges, which hit the sector in just one week, will not be the last to affect SA agriculture. Moreover, they will probably have a lasting negative result on the areas that are affected. Effective collaboration between the government and organised agriculture will therefore be more critical than ever in planning resilience strategies.

The response and structuring of engagements should not always be at national level — they should include provincial and local levels. As such, ground engagements could help the agricultural sector build better and more impactful partnerships. Regulators will have to continuously work at speed in assessing the possibilities of vaccination, particularly in the cases of animal disease. Such measures should be explored with input from organised agriculture.

Overall, it will be a few weeks before we have a better view of the effects of these recent events on agricultural performance or food prices. Still, the preliminary views and anecdotal insights suggest there is no need for panic, as effects are regional. That said, the financial toll on businesses by all of these events is likely to be notable. 

• Sihlobo is chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.