HILARY JOFFE: SA has little to protect it from fragmentation trend
The country stands to lose 5% of its GDP as global trade battles growing restrictions, says the IMF
The IMF has lately been highlighting the risks that the rise of “geoeconomic fragmentation” (GEF) pose to global prosperity, and particularly to emerging markets. That includes SA, which stands to lose 5% of its GDP as global trade fragments, the fund estimates.
View this week’s SA headlines through that GEF lens and it’s hard not to fear that the fund’s worst-case scenarios are more likely than the alternative for SA. It was a week in which Transnet (https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2023-09-06-transnet-looks-to-disposals-to-raise-r50bn-for-maintenance/) released annual results showing a catastrophic decline in its freight rail performance and sliding port terminal performance...
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