I want to place in the public domain something I have opposed over several decades: predictions about the social world. I will not invoke Walt Whitman’s apology for self-contradiction, and instead hide behind John Maynard Keynes’s “hunch”.

More recently, Christian Madsbjerg wrote in Sensemaking: The Power of the Humanities in the Age of the Algorithm that the success that gave George Soros his fortune included “investigation, conceptualisation, and strategising [but] started with a hunch”...

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