There are two big worries for the SA economy: that inflation continues to overshoot, and that commodity prices tumble. As the global economy takes a turn for the worse both fears are being realised, with troubling implications for SA’s growth and fiscal outlook.

Last week SA’s May consumer price index (CPI) came in at 6.5%, against consensus expectations of 6.1% — a large overshoot. It wasn’t entirely unexpected though, given that inflation also overshot in the US and Europe in May...

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