Globally, economists are revising their growth forecasts downward and talking recession, especially after the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a more aggressive than expected 75 basis points this week and signalled more to come.

Locally, economists are revising their growth forecasts upward after an unexpectedly good first quarter. The latest Thomson Reuters consensus forecast is at 2% for this year, but some economists are closer to 3% — in a year in which the World Bank now expects the global economy to grow by just 2.9%...