Vladimir Putin’s attempt to use the rouble in international transactions is the first serious bid to replace the US dollar as the global currency. Russia’s move was, of course, spurred on by the decision of the US and its allies to freeze Russia’s foreign reserves.

Last week, Putin said “unfriendly” countries would henceforth be required to pay for Russian gas in roubles. His remark sparked debate about the future of the global monetary system. But there is no need to “wait and see” whether the rouble will replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. It will not. It’s more likely that the renminbi could, but that is probably at least 10 years away...

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