The commodity sector has long been defined by its price cyclicality — peak-trough-peak movements — often referred to as booms and busts. Though cyclicality has been a prominent feature of the sector for centuries, we still tend to become over-optimistic that booms will last forever.

We also tend to forget that a cyclical market can give way to a secular market, which is characterised as a long-term event with persistent conditions irrespective of economic slowdowns and cycles. For example, the tin sector in Cornwall experienced a secular decline...

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