The Treasury’s view on the outlook for commodity prices will be unusually closely watched when the medium-term budget is presented next month.

Government revenue this year is expected to run at least 10% ahead of February’s budget estimates, thanks mainly to the commodity price boom and the huge boost it gave mining company profits in the first half of this year. The pressure is on to announce big new items of government spending, including on a basic income grant, and the rosy revenue picture will make it hard to fend off those demands...

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