In an opinion piece published in this newspaper, Sasfin Securities strategist David Shapiro made the point that financial markets exist to make a mockery out of forecasters, and that if you want to trash your reputation in this market, make a forecast (“The reputational risk of making forecasts (../2021-05-07-david-shapiro-the-reputational-risk-of-making-forecasts/)”, May 7).

As a long-time reader of financial market “tea leaves”, I am sad to say he is not wrong. In this business you are almost always wrong. I have found it more fruitful to try to discern how the moving parts relate with one another than to predict where they will eventually go...

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