MICHEL PIREU: Predictions abound but unforeseen events will still take us by surprise
Investors are urged to look five to 10 years ahead when making investment decisions, but even company founders rarely know what will happen
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will certainly flop. It has no chance of success,” said Time Magazine in 1966, once again giving credence to the old saying that “predicting the future is easy. It’s getting it right, that’s the hard part”.
And yet investors are repeatedly warned of the dangers of focusing too much on the present; to rather look five to 10 years ahead when making their investment decisions. As if, somehow, they can succeed where those who might be expected to make the right extrapolations — the founders of companies that have come along to disrupt entire industries — have often failed...