STREET DOGS: Opportunities are rare and should be fully taken advantage of
Apply the Kelly criterion, and the average fund manager would appear to have almost no clue as to the likely success of any one idea
From the Nomad Investment Partnership Interim Letter, 2004:
If we could find 50 ideas at equal discounts to value, with equal probability (conviction) of value being realised, then they could all be equally weighted in the Partnership. We could then look forward to a nice smooth rise in the value of our shares, free from the swings a more concentrated portfolio might create. But life is not like that. In reality, opportunities in which we are comfortable to deploy capital are rare, and the highest conviction ideas the rarest of them all. The issue then is how much to invest in each idea. ..