Two decades ago, in the rarefied world of international relations theory, a bracing new argument garnered much attention. Whether it took 50 or 100 years, the argument went, nation states would inevitably give way to a world government.

The reasoning was strikingly simple. Sovereign nations made sense for as long as they were like billiard balls — liable to get knocked around a lot, but seldom broken. But ever since a series of existential threats arose — high-powered weapons, catastrophes related to climate change and pandemic disease — nation states have come to resemble eggs; they are more likely to shatter than bruise. The current order has thus stopped making sense. As a matter of survival, the argument goes, world government must come sooner or later...

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