Will finance minister Tito Mboweni stick on Wednesday or will he fold? Whether Mboweni stands by the debt consolidation targets he announced in June or whether he goes back to the drawing board is the big unknown of the medium-term budget policy statement.

It is also the most important decision a finance minister has had to make since 1996, when government adopted the Growth Employment and Redistribution (Gear) macroeconomic policy, which imposed heavy cuts on government spending, especially in provinces, to restructure public finances and set the economy on a growth path...

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